How supply chains find resilience in a fractured global order

The geopolitical sands beneath global businesses are shifting faster than ever. In the UK, the outcome of ongoing Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD) talks with the US could sway billions in pharmaceutical and steel tariffs. Across the Channel, proposed EU duties on UK steel threaten to push the industry to what experts say could be “its biggest crisis in history”. At the same time, stalled peace efforts in Ukraine continue to unsettle global commerce.

These shocks have driven up costs and unsettled energy markets, making disruption the rule rather than the exception. With 73% of UK businesses expecting geopolitical risk to intensify in the next 12 months, businesses are preparing for a year of risk mitigation. Attention is turning to how they can restore foresight and control, and whether emerging technologies like agentic AI could hold the key.

When global shocks hit closer to home

For UK firms, geopolitical volatility is taking a measurable toll. 77% of UK businesses say the war in Ukraine has had the single largest negative impact on confidence in their supply chains, closely followed by U.S. tariffs at 75%. Increasingly, the erosion of confidence in geopolitical order is leaving businesses hesitant to invest, slowing innovation, and limiting competitiveness.

As uncertainty deepens, 62% of organisations admit they are already struggling to manage this geopolitical risk, and only 22% feel fully prepared for the next major disruption. This fragility means even minor external shocks can now ripple through operations, disrupting the production and supplier commitments.

Profitability is under pressure as companies absorb rising input and logistics costs, often passing these increases on to customers while continually renegotiating disrupted supply contracts. Nearshoring and supplier diversification may buy time. But if these processes are reactive, they fail to address the root problem. Businesses need the ability to anticipate, quantify, and respond decisively when the geopolitical disruption hits. That demands a new approach to intelligence and decision-making.

AI lights the beacons of supply intelligence

In a world of rising risks that are too complex and numerous for humans to manage alone, AI can become a vital decision-making ally. AI tools can help with interpreting supplier data in real time, mapping interdependencies, and flagging risks before they escalate. If a shipping lane closes or a new tariff comes into force, AI can instantly model alternatives, helping teams act before disruption spreads.

The next evolution in this capability is already underway. Businesses are moving beyond generative chatbots and toward Agentic systems that don’t just provide answers but work in an orchestrated fashion with humans. These agents work in an automated manner within defined limits, using data and tools to analyse contracts, model supply scenarios or even source suppliers independently, expanding capacity and freeing teams to focus on strategy and building relationships.

AI built on shifting sands won’t save supply chains

Yet AI agents are only as strong as the foundations beneath them. Too many organisations invest first and ask questions later. Without accurate data, agentic AI becomes a dazzling tool built on a cracked foundation. Powerful in theory, but fragile in practice. The most resilient organisations treat agentic AI as a tool to augment human intelligence, not replace it. This matters because in supply chains, the risks are tangible. A single poorly informed decision can shut down a factory for weeks or damage vital supplier relationships. Responsible agentic AI use requires governance frameworks that define when and how humans intervene, as ultimately, AI won’t be responsible if an issue occurs.

Businesses are beginning to recognise this balance. 71% of UK organisations now believe they must invest in technology to identify and mitigate geopolitical risk more effectively. Those that do so successfully are combining the precision of agentic AI insights with the context of human expertise to respond faster, protect profitability, and adapt to uncertainty with confidence.

Foresight is the new resilience

Geopolitical instability has already cemented itself as a constant in global trade. Now, the measure of a company’s strength will lie in its ability to stay informed, anticipate change, and act with clarity while the world moves around it. When applied intelligently and deeply into a company’s ecosystem, agentic AI can provide that stability, turning data into foresight, connecting fragmented information into clear intelligence, and strengthening the human decisions that keep organisations resilient.

The world won’t steady itself. The leaders will be those who spot risks sooner, decide faster, and act with conviction. In a landscape built on shocks, foresight is the last durable advantage.