How to lead a team when uncertainty is the norm

Uncertainty is no longer something leaders move through from time to time. For many of us, it’s the background to everyday work.

Hybrid teams, AI and constant change have shifted the signals we once relied on. Presence no longer tells the full story. Speed can look like momentum, even when thinking is shallow. And control, despite our instincts, doesn’t necessarily create confidence.

When those signals disappear, many leaders respond by doing more. Meetings multiply, messages stack up and decisions speed up. On the surface, everything looks busy and productive but underneath, attention is stretched, energy drains away and meaningful work slows. Research on cognitive load shows that after an interruption it takes, on average, 23 minutes to fully refocus. It’s a small stat with big implications for how work really gets done.

Leading well in this environment is less about having a clear path and more about creating the conditions for good work when said path isn’t clear. Most leaders understand this in theory. The harder part is holding onto it when the pressure is on.

Clarity matters more than certainty

Teams don’t expect their leaders to have all the answers. What they’re really looking for is clarity.

Clarity about priorities. About expectations. About what matters now, what can wait and what’s still genuinely undecided. That kind of clarity reduces anxiety far more effectively than confident-sounding assurances ever could.

When leaders are open about what’s known and what’s still evolving, speculation drops and focus improves. People spend less energy second-guessing and more energy moving things forward. The clearer, or crispier, that clarity is, the easier it becomes for teams to act with confidence.

Presenteeism has changed shape

Presenteeism hasn’t disappeared. Today it shows up as constant availability, packed calendars and the unspoken pressure to respond instantly, even when it’s not urgent. Work looks full and active, while attention fragments and energy slowly drains.

This is especially damaging in knowledge-based work, where judgement, creativity and focus are essential. Those qualities need space. They don’t thrive under continuous interruption.

Leaders play a huge role here. What we respond to, reward and model quickly becomes the norm. When visibility is treated as the signal of value, people optimise for being seen rather than being effective. 

Performance needs redefining

High performance today doesn’t look the same as it did  a few years ago.

It relies less on constant motion and responsiveness and more on direction and outcomes. Teams perform best when success is clearly defined and they are trusted to decide how to get there. Trust doesn’t remove accountability; it shifts where it sits.

Clear outcomes and agreed boundaries reduce friction and over-communication. They create space for deeper thinking and better decisions. When expectations are explicit, people stop performing productivity and start delivering impact.

Redefining performance in this way is one of the simplest ways leaders can reduce pressure without lowering standards.

Using AI with intent

AI is now part of everyday work. Whether it helps or hinders comes down to how it’s introduced.

Used well, it can remove low-value tasks and reduce cognitive load. It can take care of routine analysis and admin, giving people time and energy back for work that needs human judgement, creativity and context.

But without intent, it can do the opposite. Pace increases. Expectations creep up. Teams feel pressured to process more information, faster, or to act on AI-generated outputs without the time to properly evaluate them.

Technology doesn’t solve uncertainty on its own. Leadership choices determine whether AI becomes a source of capacity or pressure. The real question is whether it’s being used to optimise efficiency, or to support people.

Focus your energy where it actually matters

Underneath all of this is a quieter but more important factor: energy.

Every team has a finite amount and uncertainty consumes it quickly. Ambiguity consumes even more. When priorities are unclear, energy gets spent interpreting and second-guessing rather than doing the work itself.

There’s a lot here that sits outside your control. Markets shift. Technology evolves. Competitive pressure grows. You can’t change those things by worrying harder. What you can influence is how your team experiences them.

You shape whether people are fighting uncertainty and battling for attention, or whether they have some stability around what they can actually influence.

Leaders who manage energy well are deliberate about where it flows. They pay attention not just to what work gets done, but to how work is experienced. They simplify where they can, remove friction and protect attention, shielding teams from noise that doesn’t need their involvement, so people can focus on what matters.

Managing energy isn’t about slowing everything down. It’s about directing effort towards the work that makes the biggest difference, and protecting the conditions that allow people to do it well.

The leadership advantage

Leading through uncertainty calls for restraint as much as action and knowing which one is needed when.

The best leaders simplify, prioritise and remove friction. They provide clear direction even when certainty isn’t available. And they resist the pull to create activity as a substitute for progress.

Leadership hasn’t become easier but it has become clearer. Today’s leaders are asked to combine direction, trust and attention management to shape how energy flows, creating environments where people can do their best work without burning out.

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